Non Farm Friday hand sitting

More Ken Veksler, 02 December 201102 December 2011 Walking in this morning it’s hard to decipher what this market really wants to do. Human nature has us and the market by and large hoping for the best and looking on the bright side of life.
Fair enough really, however, reality may indeed turn out to be starkly different. Yesterday was all about consolidation and hitting the snooze button as the market, recovered, took profit and shook its head at the intervention shudders that rippled through the market just the day before. For those that attempted to fade the hope rally on the back of the liquidity injection, little if anything was garnered out of the move and some light stop loss triggering was there for the taking in the major pairs.

Late in the afternoon just as your scribe was about to depart the office, there was a rumble in the EURCHF as more chatter of impending negative deposit rates in Switzerland was again hitting the market. The price action was clearly one way in the cross, higher, but the gapping effect with which it rose gave away the underlying tendency in this market which is one that is clearly devoid of liquidity. No huge surprise as we head into Christmas and year end, but worth bearing in mind as to what the New Year may have in store for us.

Today of course is the Non Farm Friday circus and dealers will be sitting on hands until the print this afternoon. Headlines from the Eurozone may shake things up a bit in the run into the data, but truly I wouldn’t expect too much as most would just like to leave this week behind them. We do also have the big European heavy hitters in Merkozy etc meeting in London today and are already hearing various headlines from whatever Merkel is spouting regarding the complete (for today at least) disinterest in issuing Eurobonds.

Levels are harder to pick than a broken nose in this market, but the obvious ones are still in play and in the EURUSD we’re looking for stops sitting in and above 1.3530 and better offers above 1.3580/1.3630. The downside invariably still has some bids coming in at 1.3380 and 1.3350 (the latter being the more formidable).

In the AUDUSD, 1.0330 is the key breakout area to keep an eye on, but my gut says that unless the NFP print is amazing this level should remain as resistance on the day and we continue to trade the narrow range established over the last 48 hours of 1.0150/80 – 1.0280/00.

USDJPY remains a paint drying exercise in futility and a waste of time, but do keep an eye on US 2 and 10 year yields, they’re on the move presently.

Data outside of the above employment print also sees the Canadian unemployment print, but little to be inferred from this. We also have UK Construction PMI this morning.

In my humble opinion it still remains a helmets on type of market and its only the brave that will have a flutter on a day like today. As always, don’t ruin your weekend with a cheap Friday punt. Tags: EURUSD, USDJPY, AUDUSD, EURCHF, Employment Rates 162 Views 0 Like! 0 Comments 0 Follow In order to like something, you need to be a member.
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