More Ole Hansen, 9 hours ago16 December 2011 Non-Independent Investment Research The price of CBOT wheat will double during 2012 after having been the worst performing crop in 2011. The drop was brought about due to a combination of farmers responding to high prices in 2010/11 and normalised weather in the Former Soviet Union. However with 7 billion people on the earth and money printing machines at full throttle bad weather across the world will unfortunately return and make it a tricky year for agricultural products. Wheat especially will rally strongly as speculative investors, who had built up one of the biggest short positions on record, will help drive the price back towards the record high last seen in 2008.
About Outrageous Predictions
In its Outrageous Predictions, Saxo Bank focuses on events that are unlikely to happen, but at the same time are far more likely than the market appreciates. The predictions are not meant as forecasts, but it is important for investors to consider events with under-recognised probabilities. Should any of them come to pass, they would have a significant impact on the markets. Read all of Saxo Bank's Outrageous Predictions for 2012 here. Downlaod a PDF document containing the Outrageous Predictions here. View a compilation of short videos about them here.
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viernes, 16 de diciembre de 2011
Outrageous Prediction: Baltic Dry Index rises 100 percent
More Peter Garnry, 9 hours ago16 December 2011 Non-Independent Investment Research Despite the dry bulk fleet being expected to outgrow demand in 2012, leading to further over capacity, several factors could surprise resulting in a price spike in the Baltic Dry Index. Lower oil prices in 2012 could lead to an increase in the Baltic Dry Index as operating expenses go down. Brazil and Australia are expected to expand iron ore supply, further leading to lower prices and therefore higher import demand from China to satisfy its insatiable industrial production. In combination with monetary easing this leads to a massive spike in iron ore demand. The last shock that could impact the dry bulk market is exceptional dry weather, due to El Nino, leading to a plunge in hydropower electricity generation and thereby fuelling demand for coal imports.
About Outrageous Predictions
In its Outrageous Predictions, Saxo Bank focuses on events that are unlikely to happen, but at the same time are far more likely than the market appreciates. The predictions are not meant as forecasts, but it is important for investors to consider events with under-recognised probabilities. Should any of them come to pass, they would have a significant impact on the markets. Read all of Saxo Bank's Outrageous Predictions for 2012 here. Downlaod a PDF document containing the Outrageous Predictions here. View a compilation of short videos about them here.
Tags: commodities, crude oil 73 Views 0 Like! 0 Comments 0 Follow In order to like something, you need to be a member.
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About Outrageous Predictions
In its Outrageous Predictions, Saxo Bank focuses on events that are unlikely to happen, but at the same time are far more likely than the market appreciates. The predictions are not meant as forecasts, but it is important for investors to consider events with under-recognised probabilities. Should any of them come to pass, they would have a significant impact on the markets. Read all of Saxo Bank's Outrageous Predictions for 2012 here. Downlaod a PDF document containing the Outrageous Predictions here. View a compilation of short videos about them here.
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Cash replacing commodities ahead of year-end
More Ole Hansen, 7 hours ago16 December 2011 Non-Independent Investment Research
The major commodity indices followed stocks lower this week, posting their biggest drop in nearly three months, as investors increasingly moved into cash with the two major investment markets - oil and gold - both suffering heavy losses. The dollar meanwhile moved to an 11-month high against the Euro, as funding stress among European banks increased, thereby eroding support for commodities priced in dollars.
Spanish debt auction puts bounce in the dead cat
More John J Hardy, yesterday15 December 2011 Non-Independent Investment Research A strong Spanish debt auction today finally put a bid in the EURUSD after the key pair drooped below 1.30 of late. Meanwhile, the SNB disappoints those looking for a rise in the EURCHF floor.
After three days of bloodletting for risk on the re-acceleration of the EU crisis, the markets are trying to take a breather today, driven perhaps by less catastrophic than feared data and a strong Spanish bond auction. The HSBC flash PMI in China improved, though still came in just below 50, and the European flash PMI’s for December were slightly better than November levels, if still a bit depressed. In other words, expectations may have gotten so bad here – particularly for Europe – that only truly catastrophic data has the power to pile on the pessimism.
While the latest political noise out of Europe continues to strip away the last shreds of confidence that any solution will ever be found that keeps the EU together, many of the sovereign- and bank liquidity indicators bounced in today’s early trade after a scary semi-meltdown yesterday. This and the tightening sovereign debt spreads in general today were driven by a very successful auction of Spanish debt – as Spain managed to sell twice as many bonds as anticipated at its auction today. Some of that demand may be due to the anticipated boost in liquidity from the ECB’s most recent measures , which could allow Spanish and other banks to lock in fat spreads on LTRO and other borrowings versus investment in sovereign debt – assuming that what looks well on paper, ends well in reality.
SNBDespite evidence of a cratering Swiss economy and deflationary inflation readings of late, the SNB today dashed market expectations that a new rise in the EURCHF floor and/or other measures would be announced today and CHF was bid, driving EURCHF back below 1.2300. Still, the language on the SNB’s intent was more than clear, as Hildebrand stated that the SNB was ready to act at any time and that its current strength still presents a strong risk to the Swiss economy. The inflation forecast for 2012 was kept at an outright negative -0.3% and the forecast for 2013 was lowered slightly. The Citigroup economic data surprise index for Switzerland is at an astounding -127, the lowest since early 2009. It is clear the SNB will move again, but it seems to want to keep the market guessing on timing, a tactic that may actually enhance the eventual impact of a move.
Where we stand and looking aheadToday we’re finally finding a bit of stabilization in risk appetite after a couple of rather heady days of declines triggered partially by the petulant reaction to the FOMC meeting not producing any QE3 guidance (looks like a rather thin excuse as there should hardly have been any dramatic expectations heading into that meeting – sometimes, these event risks merely “dam up” market action due to those who would simply like to wait for event risks like this to be out of the way before putting on risk.), but also by the aggravated return of EU worries.
With US bond auctions this week showing a more-than-firm bid for US government paper all the way to the longest end of the curve, it appears the market is raising its macro bet on a deflationary trend, the Bernanke Fed notwithstanding. US 30-year rates below 3.0% again are a very strong expression of caution. Commodities are also beginning to look more than a bit frayed around the edges, as the consensus wisdom of printing-money-means-buy-hard-assets is being sorely tested at the moment. Even crude oil finally managed to suffer a severe correction yesterday for the first time in months. Meanwhile, as one would expect in such circumstances, the USD has broken new ground to the upside in recent days. On the other hand, equities have hardly corrected and an equity market rout would be the final straw for markets/risk appetite here – and in the G10 currencies, could finally serve to administer a more definitive knock-out blow to the Aussie. On that front, it is interesting to note that the US S&P500 crossed and closed below the 50-day moving average again before today’s enthusiastic response to the Spanish debt auction.
Ahead of the US equity market open, risk appetite is getting a further boost from the latest figures out of the US to roll in better than expected, with weekly jobless claims registering the lowest reading since pre-Lehman days and the Empire Manufacturing survey showing a solid gain. Watch for the Philly Fed out shortly. Tomorrow’s US November CPI release will be interesting as we look for a possible end to the rising trend in core prices on year-on-year comparisons. The year-on-year core CPI has marched higher for 12 consecutive months in a row and in Oct. sat at a near 3-year high of 2.1%.
Let’s also watch how EURUSD behaves here around the 1.30 level as we are entering the final trading days of the year. If we manage to avoid a dramatic move in underlying fundamentals and liquidity indicators, we could see a chop-fest for the next couple of weeks. But if the Spanish auction merely proves a distraction that is not indicative of improving confidence in the near term liquidity, then the latest directional move in risk could quickly extend.
Stay careful out there.
Economic Data Highlights China Dec. HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI out at 49.0 vs. 47.7 in Nov. Switzerland Q3 Industrial Production out at -1.4% QoQ and -1.4% YoY vs. -0.9%/0.0% expected, respectively and vs.
After three days of bloodletting for risk on the re-acceleration of the EU crisis, the markets are trying to take a breather today, driven perhaps by less catastrophic than feared data and a strong Spanish bond auction. The HSBC flash PMI in China improved, though still came in just below 50, and the European flash PMI’s for December were slightly better than November levels, if still a bit depressed. In other words, expectations may have gotten so bad here – particularly for Europe – that only truly catastrophic data has the power to pile on the pessimism.
While the latest political noise out of Europe continues to strip away the last shreds of confidence that any solution will ever be found that keeps the EU together, many of the sovereign- and bank liquidity indicators bounced in today’s early trade after a scary semi-meltdown yesterday. This and the tightening sovereign debt spreads in general today were driven by a very successful auction of Spanish debt – as Spain managed to sell twice as many bonds as anticipated at its auction today. Some of that demand may be due to the anticipated boost in liquidity from the ECB’s most recent measures , which could allow Spanish and other banks to lock in fat spreads on LTRO and other borrowings versus investment in sovereign debt – assuming that what looks well on paper, ends well in reality.
SNBDespite evidence of a cratering Swiss economy and deflationary inflation readings of late, the SNB today dashed market expectations that a new rise in the EURCHF floor and/or other measures would be announced today and CHF was bid, driving EURCHF back below 1.2300. Still, the language on the SNB’s intent was more than clear, as Hildebrand stated that the SNB was ready to act at any time and that its current strength still presents a strong risk to the Swiss economy. The inflation forecast for 2012 was kept at an outright negative -0.3% and the forecast for 2013 was lowered slightly. The Citigroup economic data surprise index for Switzerland is at an astounding -127, the lowest since early 2009. It is clear the SNB will move again, but it seems to want to keep the market guessing on timing, a tactic that may actually enhance the eventual impact of a move.
Where we stand and looking aheadToday we’re finally finding a bit of stabilization in risk appetite after a couple of rather heady days of declines triggered partially by the petulant reaction to the FOMC meeting not producing any QE3 guidance (looks like a rather thin excuse as there should hardly have been any dramatic expectations heading into that meeting – sometimes, these event risks merely “dam up” market action due to those who would simply like to wait for event risks like this to be out of the way before putting on risk.), but also by the aggravated return of EU worries.
With US bond auctions this week showing a more-than-firm bid for US government paper all the way to the longest end of the curve, it appears the market is raising its macro bet on a deflationary trend, the Bernanke Fed notwithstanding. US 30-year rates below 3.0% again are a very strong expression of caution. Commodities are also beginning to look more than a bit frayed around the edges, as the consensus wisdom of printing-money-means-buy-hard-assets is being sorely tested at the moment. Even crude oil finally managed to suffer a severe correction yesterday for the first time in months. Meanwhile, as one would expect in such circumstances, the USD has broken new ground to the upside in recent days. On the other hand, equities have hardly corrected and an equity market rout would be the final straw for markets/risk appetite here – and in the G10 currencies, could finally serve to administer a more definitive knock-out blow to the Aussie. On that front, it is interesting to note that the US S&P500 crossed and closed below the 50-day moving average again before today’s enthusiastic response to the Spanish debt auction.
Ahead of the US equity market open, risk appetite is getting a further boost from the latest figures out of the US to roll in better than expected, with weekly jobless claims registering the lowest reading since pre-Lehman days and the Empire Manufacturing survey showing a solid gain. Watch for the Philly Fed out shortly. Tomorrow’s US November CPI release will be interesting as we look for a possible end to the rising trend in core prices on year-on-year comparisons. The year-on-year core CPI has marched higher for 12 consecutive months in a row and in Oct. sat at a near 3-year high of 2.1%.
Let’s also watch how EURUSD behaves here around the 1.30 level as we are entering the final trading days of the year. If we manage to avoid a dramatic move in underlying fundamentals and liquidity indicators, we could see a chop-fest for the next couple of weeks. But if the Spanish auction merely proves a distraction that is not indicative of improving confidence in the near term liquidity, then the latest directional move in risk could quickly extend.
Stay careful out there.
Economic Data Highlights China Dec. HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI out at 49.0 vs. 47.7 in Nov. Switzerland Q3 Industrial Production out at -1.4% QoQ and -1.4% YoY vs. -0.9%/0.0% expected, respectively and vs.
Medium-term USDJPY projections
More Tom Cleveland, yesterday15 December 2011 Our currency markets continue to be racked by volatility, driven by uncertainty in Europe and tepid attempts at a rebounding economic recovery on a global scale. For countries like Japan that have had both weak fundamentals and a major natural disaster on its plate, a strong national currency is no recipe for recovery. The Yen, however, much like the Swiss Franc, has continued to be the safe haven of choice, buffeted by the repetitious waves of risk aversion that sweep through the investment community at large. Despite central bank intervention, the Yen remains range bound.
Traders, exporters, and government officials alike are firming up their projections for the medium-term, but try as they might to wish it weaker, the Yen seems fixated on Post-War highs versus the U.S. Dollar. The diagram below presents the technical picture for the recent daily trading range for the “USD JPY” currency pair:
Traders, exporters, and government officials alike are firming up their projections for the medium-term, but try as they might to wish it weaker, the Yen seems fixated on Post-War highs versus the U.S. Dollar. The diagram below presents the technical picture for the recent daily trading range for the “USD JPY” currency pair:
EURUSD - Cautiously Bullish above 1.2982.
More PIA-first, 12 hours ago16 December 2011 The sequence of three negative daily performances ended yesterday with some profit taking. The resulting rally was a minor one though with all trading taking place within Wednesday’s range but while the weakness of gains is a concern, overnight demand keeps the tone positive. In view of this our call is Cautiously Bullish above 1.2982. The immediate objective is 1.3051, yesterday's top, with a move beyond that point targeting 1.3111, half of Tuesday’s net decline, or even 1.3186, Tuesday’s opening point.
Selling through 1.2982, yesterday's European afternoon low, is the risk to this call as it signals that selling pressure is greater than currently assessed. The market should then decline to 1.2945, this week's bottom, then 1.2910.
Selling through 1.2982, yesterday's European afternoon low, is the risk to this call as it signals that selling pressure is greater than currently assessed. The market should then decline to 1.2945, this week's bottom, then 1.2910.
David Cameron's stance in Brussels: smart or stubborn?
More Nick Beecroft, 12 hours ago16 December 2011 Non-Independent Investment Research David Cameron’s refusal to vote for EU Treaty changes at last week’s summit has since been the subject of many column-metres of comment in the press - well, here’s my input.
He had little choice
The first point to understand is that Cameron probably had little choice from a political perspective-had he rolled over and signed up for what is essentially the start of a United States of Europe, then it is highly possible that he would have faced a rebellion of such magnitude from his own MP’s that it might well have culminated in a refendum on the UK’s continued EU membership, which stood every chance of leading to the UK’s withdrawal. This would have been a disaster for Britain. It is also definitely the case that the majority of British voters would have supported Cameron’s stance; why on earth would the man in the street want to jump aboard a bus which seems to be heading for a very dangerous stretch of road?
The big picture
From an economic perspective, the important consideration is not so much the narrow point of freedom for the City of London’s financial empires from excessive regulation and taxation, it is the big picture that the UK currently enjoys safe-haven status, as a major, politically stable economy, which has vigorously embraced fiscal probity and which has the marvellous luxury of a flexible exchange rate to act as a shock absorber for economic troubles; automatically preserving her international competitive position, if necessary. Why would she ever voluntarily give up either of these advantages? Much better to keep a dignified distance.
Commercial sense will prevail
I also find it difficult to imagine the Prime Minister’s stance will have a long-term negative effect for British trade; we live in a global market, where the quality of goods or services and their relative prices determine the success or failure of trading businesses - not votes around a table in Brussels. Once the dust has settled, Britain's continued membership of the EU will in all probability not be in question, as the loss of Europe's third-largest economy would be as large a blow for the EU as the economic consequences would be for Britain-so commercial sense will prevail.
This was a high stakes gamble, but may yet turn out to be a very savvy political and economic move. Tags: EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURGBP, GBPJPY, Balance of Trade, Gross Domestic Product, Gross National Debt 93 Views 1 Like! 0 Comments 0 Follow In order to like something, you need to be a member.
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He had little choice
The first point to understand is that Cameron probably had little choice from a political perspective-had he rolled over and signed up for what is essentially the start of a United States of Europe, then it is highly possible that he would have faced a rebellion of such magnitude from his own MP’s that it might well have culminated in a refendum on the UK’s continued EU membership, which stood every chance of leading to the UK’s withdrawal. This would have been a disaster for Britain. It is also definitely the case that the majority of British voters would have supported Cameron’s stance; why on earth would the man in the street want to jump aboard a bus which seems to be heading for a very dangerous stretch of road?
The big picture
From an economic perspective, the important consideration is not so much the narrow point of freedom for the City of London’s financial empires from excessive regulation and taxation, it is the big picture that the UK currently enjoys safe-haven status, as a major, politically stable economy, which has vigorously embraced fiscal probity and which has the marvellous luxury of a flexible exchange rate to act as a shock absorber for economic troubles; automatically preserving her international competitive position, if necessary. Why would she ever voluntarily give up either of these advantages? Much better to keep a dignified distance.
Commercial sense will prevail
I also find it difficult to imagine the Prime Minister’s stance will have a long-term negative effect for British trade; we live in a global market, where the quality of goods or services and their relative prices determine the success or failure of trading businesses - not votes around a table in Brussels. Once the dust has settled, Britain's continued membership of the EU will in all probability not be in question, as the loss of Europe's third-largest economy would be as large a blow for the EU as the economic consequences would be for Britain-so commercial sense will prevail.
This was a high stakes gamble, but may yet turn out to be a very savvy political and economic move. Tags: EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURGBP, GBPJPY, Balance of Trade, Gross Domestic Product, Gross National Debt 93 Views 1 Like! 0 Comments 0 Follow In order to like something, you need to be a member.
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Outrageous Prediction: USDCNY rises 10 percent to 7.00
More Mads Koefoed, 10 hours ago16 December 2011 Non-Independent Investment Research The impressive growth rates in the world’s second-largest economy, China, since the end of the Great Recession have been predicated on investment and exports. As marginal returns from building million-inhabitant ghost towns diminish and exporters struggle with razor-thin margins due to the advancing CNY China gets to the brink of a “recession”, meaning 5-6 per cent GDP growth. Chinese policymakers come to the rescue of exporters by allowing the CNY to decline against a US Dollar - buoyed by its safe-haven status amid slowing global growth and an on-going Eurozone sovereign debt crisis - and send the pair up to 7.00 for a 10 percent increase.
About Outrageous Predictions
In its Outrageous Predictions, Saxo Bank focuses on events that are unlikely to happen, but at the same time are far more likely than the market appreciates. The predictions are not meant as forecasts, but it is important for investors to consider events with under-recognised probabilities. Should any of them come to pass, they would have a significant impact on the markets. Read all of Saxo Bank's Outrageous Predictions for 2012 here. Downlaod a PDF document containing the Outrageous Predictions here. View a compilation of short videos about them here.
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About Outrageous Predictions
In its Outrageous Predictions, Saxo Bank focuses on events that are unlikely to happen, but at the same time are far more likely than the market appreciates. The predictions are not meant as forecasts, but it is important for investors to consider events with under-recognised probabilities. Should any of them come to pass, they would have a significant impact on the markets. Read all of Saxo Bank's Outrageous Predictions for 2012 here. Downlaod a PDF document containing the Outrageous Predictions here. View a compilation of short videos about them here.
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Outrageous Prediction: SNB wins and catapults EURCHF to 1.50
More John J Hardy, 10 hours ago16 December 2011 Non-Independent Investment Research Switzerland’s persistency in fighting the appreciation of its currency will continue to pay off in 2012. After the dramatic failure of direct FX intervention in the market in 2009 and 2010 and after EURCHF threatened to destroy the Swiss economy with its death spiral towards parity in mid-2011, the Swiss National Bank and Swiss government finally joined forces to engineer an aggressive expansion of money supply and established a floor in EURCHF at 1.20. With Swiss fundamentals – particularly export related – continuing to suffer mightily in 2012 from past CHF strength, the SNB and government bear down further to prevent more collateral damage and introduce extensions to existing programmes and even negative interest rates to trigger sufficient capital flight from the traditional safe haven of Switzerland to engineer a move in EURCHF as high as 1.50 during the year, much to the chagrin of those who believe central banks can’t intervene successfully.
About Outrageous Predictions
In its Outrageous Predictions, Saxo Bank focuses on events that are unlikely to happen, but at the same time are far more likely than the market appreciates. The predictions are not meant as forecasts, but it is important for investors to consider events with under-recognised probabilities. Should any of them come to pass, they would have a significant impact on the markets. Read all of Saxo Bank's Outrageous Predictions for 2012 here. Downlaod a PDF document containing the Outrageous Predictions here. View a compilation of short videos about them here.
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About Outrageous Predictions
In its Outrageous Predictions, Saxo Bank focuses on events that are unlikely to happen, but at the same time are far more likely than the market appreciates. The predictions are not meant as forecasts, but it is important for investors to consider events with under-recognised probabilities. Should any of them come to pass, they would have a significant impact on the markets. Read all of Saxo Bank's Outrageous Predictions for 2012 here. Downlaod a PDF document containing the Outrageous Predictions here. View a compilation of short videos about them here.
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Outrageous Prediction: Sweden and Norway become new Switzerland
More Steen Jakobsen, 10 hours ago16 December 2011 Non-Independent Investment Research Sweden and Norway are at risk of replacing Switzerland as the new safe havens – “risk” because, as we saw with Switzerland, becoming a safe haven in a world of devaluing central banks presents a number of risks to a country’s economy. The capital markets of both countries are far smaller than Switzerland, (the combined FX volume in Sweden and Norway being a mere fraction of Switzerland’s), but the Swiss are aggressively devaluing their currency and money managers are looking for new safe havens for capital. At the same time, Germany and its balance sheet are embroiled in the EU debt debacle and the classic safe haven appeal of 10-year Bunds is fading fast. Sweden and Norway sport excellent current account fundamentals, prudent social policies and skilled and flexible labour forces. Flows into the two countries’ government bonds on safe haven appeal becomes popular enough to drive 10-year rates there to more than 100 basis points below the classic safe haven German Bunds.
About Outrageous Predictions
In its Outrageous Predictions, Saxo Bank focuses on events that are unlikely to happen, but at the same time are far more likely than the market appreciates. The predictions are not meant as forecasts, but it is important for investors to consider events with under-recognised probabilities. Should any of them come to pass, they would have a significant impact on the markets. Read all of Saxo Bank's Outrageous Predictions for 2012 here. Downlaod a PDF document containing the Outrageous Predictions here. View a compilation of short videos about them here.
Tags: forex, macro 64 Views 0 Like! 0 Comments 0 Follow In order to like something, you need to be a member.
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About Outrageous Predictions
In its Outrageous Predictions, Saxo Bank focuses on events that are unlikely to happen, but at the same time are far more likely than the market appreciates. The predictions are not meant as forecasts, but it is important for investors to consider events with under-recognised probabilities. Should any of them come to pass, they would have a significant impact on the markets. Read all of Saxo Bank's Outrageous Predictions for 2012 here. Downlaod a PDF document containing the Outrageous Predictions here. View a compilation of short videos about them here.
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Outrageous Prediction: An unannounced candidate takes White House
More John J Hardy, 9 hours ago16 December 2011 Non-Independent Investment Research In 1992, a savvy, yet highly erratic Texas billionaire named Ross Perot managed to take advantage of a recessionary economy and popular disgust with US politics and reap 18.9 percent of the popular vote. Step forward to 2008, and Obama promises “real change” from eight years of Republican rule as the economy is nose-diving. Now, three years of Obama has brought too little change and only additional widespread disillusionment with the entire US political system. Going into the election in 2012, the incumbent Democrats are in ideological disarray and will get the blame for continued economic malaise and the favour-the-rich Republicans will never win the popular vote with the US rich/poor gap at a record width and social tension rising. In short, conditions for a third party candidate have never been riper. Someone smart enough to sense this and with a strong programme for real change throws his hat in the ring early in 2012 and snatches the presidency in November in one of the most pivotal elections in US history, taking 38 percent of the popular vote. A new political order is born.
About Outrageous Predictions
In its Outrageous Predictions, Saxo Bank focuses on events that are unlikely to happen, but at the same time are far more likely than the market appreciates. The predictions are not meant as forecasts, but it is important for investors to consider events with under-recognised probabilities. Should any of them come to pass, they would have a significant impact on the markets. Read all of Saxo Bank's Outrageous Predictions for 2012 here. Downlaod a PDF document containing the Outrageous Predictions here. View a compilation of short videos about them here.
Tags: forex, EURUSD, macro 52 Views 0 Like! 0 Comments 0 Follow In order to like something, you need to be a member.
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About Outrageous Predictions
In its Outrageous Predictions, Saxo Bank focuses on events that are unlikely to happen, but at the same time are far more likely than the market appreciates. The predictions are not meant as forecasts, but it is important for investors to consider events with under-recognised probabilities. Should any of them come to pass, they would have a significant impact on the markets. Read all of Saxo Bank's Outrageous Predictions for 2012 here. Downlaod a PDF document containing the Outrageous Predictions here. View a compilation of short videos about them here.
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Outrageous Prediction: EU declares bank holiday during 2012
More Steen Jakobsen, 9 hours ago16 December 2011 Non-Independent Investment Research The December EU Treaty changes prove insufficient to solve EU funding needs – particularly those in Italy – and the EU debt crisis returns with a vengeance by mid-year. In response, the stock market finally caves in and drops 25 percent in short order, prompting EU politicians to call an extended bank holiday – closing all European exchanges and banks for a week or more. EU leaders gather like Vatican cardinals at a conclave to hammer out a “New Europe”. This could result in EU officials overstepping their mandate once again with new burdensome command and control measures that further violate the principles of the EU and free markets. Regardless, this “final” attempt leads straight to a popular overthrow of the old order and beginning of destruction of the sovereign debt time bomb. A period of pain is inevitable, but this will quickly allow a “new EU” to regroup with new membership and a new base from which its economies and markets can start planning for the future, rather than dealing with the mistakes of the past.
About Outrageous Predictions
In its Outrageous Predictions, Saxo Bank focuses on events that are unlikely to happen, but at the same time are far more likely than the market appreciates. The predictions are not meant as forecasts, but it is important for investors to consider events with under-recognised probabilities. Should any of them come to pass, they would have a significant impact on the markets. Read all of Saxo Bank's Outrageous Predictions for 2012 here. Downlaod a PDF document containing the Outrageous Predictions here. View a compilation of short videos about them here. Tags: forex 112 Views 0 Like! 0 Comments 0 Follow In order to like something, you need to be a member.
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About Outrageous Predictions
In its Outrageous Predictions, Saxo Bank focuses on events that are unlikely to happen, but at the same time are far more likely than the market appreciates. The predictions are not meant as forecasts, but it is important for investors to consider events with under-recognised probabilities. Should any of them come to pass, they would have a significant impact on the markets. Read all of Saxo Bank's Outrageous Predictions for 2012 here. Downlaod a PDF document containing the Outrageous Predictions here. View a compilation of short videos about them here. Tags: forex 112 Views 0 Like! 0 Comments 0 Follow In order to like something, you need to be a member.
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US CPI inflation resilient
More Mads Koefoed, 9 hours ago16 December 2011 Non-Independent Investment Research After yesterday's massive bout of economic data, which surprised to the upside in almost every report, we ease into the weekend with US CPI the only major release. That is no guarantee, however, that we will not get another rollercoaster day as rumours are already swirling that Standard & Poor's could downgrade EU sovereigns later today.
Position squaring is the name of the game
More Ken Veksler, 9 hours ago16 December 2011 T’was the week before Christmas and markets remain nervous. Not a major shock to the system given the type of year it has been, not to mention the last few months. Positioning squaring remains the name of the game and especially today ahead of what will no doubt be the last real (if you can even call it that) trading week of 2011.
US bourses closed in the black for the time this week overnight and gave the Asian indices a lead also. Consolidation rather than substantiated growth or positive sentiment can be directly attributed to the move, and likewise in the commodity complex. This gave the higher beta crosses a small boost as the DXY also sought consolidation.
My advice is not to confuse last night with everyone’s wish list item if a Christmas rally. The boat has well and truly sailed, assuming it ever even truly hit the water. The day holds little if anything of real value by way of data releases and as mentioned above position squaring in very thin markets will lead to flows in both directions (erratic as they may prove to be).
Overnight a story of the major Australian banks being issued with a one-week deadline to stress test their essentially European exposure under a “the world explodes” worst case scenario failed to dampen enthusiasm for AUD purchases, but again here it’s important to underline that this move was more a function of USD consolidation rather than inherent AUD strength.
Levels on the day aren’t dissimilar to those of yesterday, in that the EURUSD still has to overcome the 1.3050 level, with stops just above that which could see us run briefly into around the 1.3130 resistance, which will again provide a chance for rally faders to enter the market. While the downside remains as open as ever.
The AUDUSD also looks for 1.0030/50 for ultimate resistance before continuing its road lower with 0.9750 still firmly in sight.
The Cable still hangs in there and currently trades in and around the 1.5550 pivot level established over the last few weeks of price action. This cross looks equally fragile, but is less likely to drop or even move at all violently for that matter.
And finally USDCAD may well test and take a deep breath back towards the 1.0250 breakout level before reloading for another run back towards that 1.0470/0500 level.
US CPI might be the only thing that gives the market a small shudder, but in truth also quite unlikely.
As always on a Friday and never more so than now, I suggest you don’t ruin your weekend with a cheap punt.Helmets as always, firmly attached.(Twitter
US bourses closed in the black for the time this week overnight and gave the Asian indices a lead also. Consolidation rather than substantiated growth or positive sentiment can be directly attributed to the move, and likewise in the commodity complex. This gave the higher beta crosses a small boost as the DXY also sought consolidation.
My advice is not to confuse last night with everyone’s wish list item if a Christmas rally. The boat has well and truly sailed, assuming it ever even truly hit the water. The day holds little if anything of real value by way of data releases and as mentioned above position squaring in very thin markets will lead to flows in both directions (erratic as they may prove to be).
Overnight a story of the major Australian banks being issued with a one-week deadline to stress test their essentially European exposure under a “the world explodes” worst case scenario failed to dampen enthusiasm for AUD purchases, but again here it’s important to underline that this move was more a function of USD consolidation rather than inherent AUD strength.
Levels on the day aren’t dissimilar to those of yesterday, in that the EURUSD still has to overcome the 1.3050 level, with stops just above that which could see us run briefly into around the 1.3130 resistance, which will again provide a chance for rally faders to enter the market. While the downside remains as open as ever.
The AUDUSD also looks for 1.0030/50 for ultimate resistance before continuing its road lower with 0.9750 still firmly in sight.
The Cable still hangs in there and currently trades in and around the 1.5550 pivot level established over the last few weeks of price action. This cross looks equally fragile, but is less likely to drop or even move at all violently for that matter.
And finally USDCAD may well test and take a deep breath back towards the 1.0250 breakout level before reloading for another run back towards that 1.0470/0500 level.
US CPI might be the only thing that gives the market a small shudder, but in truth also quite unlikely.
As always on a Friday and never more so than now, I suggest you don’t ruin your weekend with a cheap punt.Helmets as always, firmly attached.(Twitter
The Euro-bounce continues – for how long?
More John J Hardy, 5 hours ago16 December 2011 Non-Independent Investment Research Government debt yields plunged across Europe again today, helping to pull EURUSD back well back above 1.30 again, but for how long?. Meanwhile, core US CPI data pushes to a new 3-year high.
The after-effects of yesterday’s strong Spanish debt auction are seeing EU sovereign spreads tightening sharply again today, though to varying degrees. At the long end of the curve, the yield on Spanish 10-year debt as of this writing at close to a two-month low just above 5.00% (some 33 bps lower) while Italy’s 10-year yields have only come in 20 bps and are still a rather lofty 6.37%. Elsewhere, Belgian and Austrian 10-year yields were back toward two-month lows as well. At the shorter end of the curve, the moves were even more pronounced, and aBloomberg article helps describe the likely dynamic here – sovereign spreads tightening as banks snap up sovereign debt at auctions in order to use it as collateral for the ECB 3-year LTRO’s next week – a move that will allow them to lock in rather fat, risk free spreads for a time. It appears for the moment that the ECB is enjoying the last laugh as its Dec 8 announcements are bearing fruit for now in calming debt fears. The question will be how well confidence is maintained on the other side of the 3-year LTRO set for next week – Tuesday for the “call for bids” and Wednesday sees the ECB announcing the allotment .. Another sign that all is not milk and honey is the yield on German 2-year debt, which has dropped to a record low sub 0.25% level today. On the other hand, Euro basis swaps leaped significantly higher today to -119.
Sweden - safe haven after all?Sweden’s housing prices eased back higher according to the November data, but a market top-out and beginning of a down-trend appear rather clearly defined now with this second data point in a row below the 1.9M level, and the heady price gains of the last many years easily qualify as a bubble. It will be interesting to see in 2012 how well the Swedish krona performs relative to its past behavior, which has most often been very pro-cyclical (the 1000-day correlation of EURSEK with the US S&P500 is -0.87, for example). Further strain would be added from banking system difficulties in the event that the housing bubble goes into an ugly unwinding in the New Year. At the same time, the Swedish economy’s open-ness and export strength and low sovereign debt load make it look rather tempting as a relative safe haven when looking at the other basket cases around Europe, including the Euro Zone countries, the twin-deficit laden UK, and the bent-on-devaluation Switzerland. For more on the idea of the krona as a potential safe haven, please have a look at one of our Outrageous Predictions of the New Year – the idea that Swedenand Norway become the new Switzerland.
Chart: EURSEKEURSEK has been powering lower and is now perched close to the psychologically significant 9.00 level. Could the pair be set for a try lower toward 8.90 and even 8.75 despite the direction in risk appetite, or will negative developments in Europe re-establish their gravity on the krona as they normally have in the past. The technical argument and marked new behavior of late would argue that the side of least resistance remains lower, particularly if 9.00 is taken out soon.
The after-effects of yesterday’s strong Spanish debt auction are seeing EU sovereign spreads tightening sharply again today, though to varying degrees. At the long end of the curve, the yield on Spanish 10-year debt as of this writing at close to a two-month low just above 5.00% (some 33 bps lower) while Italy’s 10-year yields have only come in 20 bps and are still a rather lofty 6.37%. Elsewhere, Belgian and Austrian 10-year yields were back toward two-month lows as well. At the shorter end of the curve, the moves were even more pronounced, and aBloomberg article helps describe the likely dynamic here – sovereign spreads tightening as banks snap up sovereign debt at auctions in order to use it as collateral for the ECB 3-year LTRO’s next week – a move that will allow them to lock in rather fat, risk free spreads for a time. It appears for the moment that the ECB is enjoying the last laugh as its Dec 8 announcements are bearing fruit for now in calming debt fears. The question will be how well confidence is maintained on the other side of the 3-year LTRO set for next week – Tuesday for the “call for bids” and Wednesday sees the ECB announcing the allotment .. Another sign that all is not milk and honey is the yield on German 2-year debt, which has dropped to a record low sub 0.25% level today. On the other hand, Euro basis swaps leaped significantly higher today to -119.
Sweden - safe haven after all?Sweden’s housing prices eased back higher according to the November data, but a market top-out and beginning of a down-trend appear rather clearly defined now with this second data point in a row below the 1.9M level, and the heady price gains of the last many years easily qualify as a bubble. It will be interesting to see in 2012 how well the Swedish krona performs relative to its past behavior, which has most often been very pro-cyclical (the 1000-day correlation of EURSEK with the US S&P500 is -0.87, for example). Further strain would be added from banking system difficulties in the event that the housing bubble goes into an ugly unwinding in the New Year. At the same time, the Swedish economy’s open-ness and export strength and low sovereign debt load make it look rather tempting as a relative safe haven when looking at the other basket cases around Europe, including the Euro Zone countries, the twin-deficit laden UK, and the bent-on-devaluation Switzerland. For more on the idea of the krona as a potential safe haven, please have a look at one of our Outrageous Predictions of the New Year – the idea that Swedenand Norway become the new Switzerland.
Chart: EURSEKEURSEK has been powering lower and is now perched close to the psychologically significant 9.00 level. Could the pair be set for a try lower toward 8.90 and even 8.75 despite the direction in risk appetite, or will negative developments in Europe re-establish their gravity on the krona as they normally have in the past. The technical argument and marked new behavior of late would argue that the side of least resistance remains lower, particularly if 9.00 is taken out soon.
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jueves, 15 de diciembre de 2011
GBPUSD - Cautiously Bearish while prices are beneath 1.5493
More PIA-first, 6 hours ago15 December 2011 Our temporarily bullish call for Wednesday was proved correct as initial upside corrected half of Tuesday’s net decline. However these highs were not maintained and GBPUSD was sold to the most negative levels for 10-weeks. Although the day's lows, near 1.5400, were also not held, the rally was a limited one and selling has resumed in Asia. In view of this our call is Cautiously Bearish below 1.5493. The immediate objective is 1.5409 with a move beneath that point targeting 1.5382 and 1.5357.
The risk to this call is that selling pressure is weaker than currently assessed although a fresh outright Buy signal would only be generated by a move through 1.5493. Prices and sentiment should then improve to 1.5535, yesterday's top, or even towards Tuesday’s 1.5582 opening point.
The risk to this call is that selling pressure is weaker than currently assessed although a fresh outright Buy signal would only be generated by a move through 1.5493. Prices and sentiment should then improve to 1.5535, yesterday's top, or even towards Tuesday’s 1.5582 opening point.
US Industrial Production, PPI head 'busiest day of the year'
More Mads Koefoed, 5 hours ago15 December 2011 Non-Independent Investment Research What has to be a contender for 'busiest day of the year' was kicked off in Asia overnight with a worse than expected Tankan survey from Japan balanced by improvement in the HSBC PMI Manufacturing for China. We carry on in the European session with PMIs en masse, Eurozone CPI and a Swiss National Bank rate announcement before the US offers a whole palette of data.
FX Markets: De-leveraging, Deflation, Deterioration, Deceased?
More Neil Staines, 3 hours ago15 December 2011
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Higgs Boson and the EU treaty change detail… Both exist in theory!
The markets continue to be under-impressed with the Eurozone and its attempt at a plan. In fact the ‘risk-off’ bias of markets has seen equities, Eurozone peripheral bonds, and risk positive currencies such as the EUR and AUD begin to sell off at an increasing rate. This is partly driven by the declining liquidity as we move closer to the end of what, for many participants, has been a year to forget. Perhaps the most significant development over recent trading sessions however has been the move in Gold. Recent position squaring (this is likely a result of the fact that for some funds a long gold position will have been one of few winning trades on the year) driven perhaps by falling equities and risk assets in general has taken the shiny metal down in the region of $100 in 24 hours, confounding correlations and short-term market participants.
Deleveraging and position exiting will continue to be a theme for ‘risk takers’ for the rest of the year and as liquidity begins to decline further markets are exposed to areas where there is a concentration of positioning. In this regard Gold continues to be vulnerable. The USD, despite the sizeable issues of the US will likely continue to benefit from the current positional unwinding and deleveraging in the short term, but GBP should continue to outperform the EUR. Perhaps another area to be concerned about as liquidity thins is EURCHF – and the critical 1.2000 level!
Averting deflation
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) left the ‘currency limit’ at 1.2000 per EUR at its monetary policy meeting this morning and kept the target for 3 month CHF libor at 0.00 percent as it battles with increasing deflationary pressure. The statement suggested that it is “ready to take further measures if needed” and it still seems likely that at some point next year (Q2 is the most likely timing in my mind, if the EU treaty change has been formalised and agreed – thus removing some of the safe haven pressure on the CHF to appreciate), provided there is not a marked turnaround in global price pressures, the SNB will raise the ‘peg’ and take EURCHF back above 1.3000.
For the moment, however, with the SNB seemingly less worried about the negative consumer price index over the past two months, and the comment from SNB Head Hildebrand that he “does not see a sustained drop in the price level”, suggest no great urgency from the SNB to raise the ‘peg’, yet at least.
No relief in 2012
ECB bond purchases over the past twelve weeks have been broadly in line with the borrowing needs of Italy and Spain (its primary targets for secondary market bond buying). In order for this relationship to be maintained (and in order for the ECB to ‘maintain the effective transmission mechanism for monetary policy’) the ECB will likely have to step up its bond purchases in Q1 2012 as the borrowing schedule for both Italy and Spain steps up significantly – perhaps just as the uncertainty is at its peak.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel said yesterday that the “EU summit result cannot be overstated”. The issue that the market continues to battle with is the fact the details of the agreements under the treaty (which are as yet not clear enough for Ireland to see if agreement requires a referendum) means perhaps the comment should have read ‘EU summit result cannot be stated’. She went on to suggest that the EU steps are to be drafted by March and only then can the national leaders go to their parliaments (or to the nation) for ratification.
The EU17 may find the answers to their respective crises in the long run, however as J M Keynes famously said “in the long run we are all dead”.
Tags: forex, EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURCHF, EURGBP, Consumer Price Index, London Interbank Offered Rate 92 Views 0 Like! 0 Comments 0 Follow In order to like something, you need to be a member.Click here to join. It's free!
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miércoles, 14 de diciembre de 2011
Gold trading below its 200-day moving average
More Ole Hansen, 5 hours ago14 December 2011 Non-Independent Investment Research The continued strength of the dollar and stock market weakness has driven silver down by 6.5 percent and gold below its 200-day moving average for the first time since early 2009. Investors continue to reduce positions ahead of the New Year and even gold, which is expected to shine in 2012, is currently failing to stay immune from the selling. Next support is the September low at 1,533 which co-incides with the uptrend from the 2008 low. Tags: gold 82 Views 0 Like! 0 Comments 0 Follow In order to like something, you need to be a member.
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FOMC might be a non-event, even if it is Bernanke’s birthday
More John J Hardy, yesterday13 December 2011 Non-Independent Investment Research The FOMC may come and go without much fuss, but the voting composition will change drastically after today’s meeting. This is an odd market – lots of fear without very many out there expressing it.
Today saw relatively tight range trading after yesterday’s big swings, as the market is either awaiting the outcome of tonight’s FOMC meeting or simply biding its time for any other number of catalysts. US Retail Sales figures were rather downbeat and one of the more notable disappointments after a long string of very strong data.
FOMC PreviewWe’ve got a one-day FOMC meeting set for today, with a new monetary policy statement on the way at 19:15 GMT. Considering that this is a short meeting with no Bernanke press conference and that it will be the last meeting with the three hawkish regional Fed presidents as voters, it’s easy to believe that any major policy hints will await a likely less rowdy bunch of replacements from the regions. Then again, the other of the four voters who is about to become a non-voter, Evans of the Chicago Fed, recently actually dissented on the dovish side, outlining a particularly aggressive monetary forcing in the economy aimed at boosting unemployment through NGDP targeting – creating nominal growth regardless of inflationary consequences through monetary forcing.. It brought to my mind the image of force feeding geese to grow their livers for pate. We’ve yet to see other Fed members expressing enthusiasm for this “nuclear option”, but one wonders what a steep drop in core CPI readings early next year and an unemployment rate bounce back above 9.0% might do for Fed sentiment, should that come to pass. On that note, watch out for this Friday’s CPI release as the month-on-month core numbers have been creeping lower over the last two months, even if the year-on-year levels are near 3-year highs.
Of the four new voters, only one is known to be a hawk, and even if he – Lacker of the Richmond Fed – is a rather outspoken hawk, one wonders what will stop the doves in the New Year. The majority, at least, all seem pliable to the academic absolutism of the Mr. Bernanke and the belief that the Fed can always engineer a rescue with additional helicopter drops of cash/liquidity. But there are a number of forces that could stand in the way of further action from the Fed in the New Year: economic (continued stronger than expected growth and in particular improvement in the labour market or higher than expected inflation), political (stronger signs that the Fed will face resistance from Congress and/or the president. This has boiled up at times, but there’s not enough of a consensus, though it bears watching whether a presidential candidate from the Republican side, or especially from a third party picks up the blame-the-Fed rhetoric. It’s certainly low-hanging fruit for a protest/occupy movement) and financial (Fed unable to keep order across the entire yield curve, creating uncomfortably high yields out at the longer end of the curve. No signs of this at all so far, but worth watching for a bottom in the 30-year bond cycle of ever lower yields.)
Odds and endsThe Germany ZEW survey was a bit better than expected, though still extremely low by historic standards (only late 2008 and 1992 saw similar lows). The current situation component also declined to a 17-month low.
The UK Nov. CPI eased off just a bit, but the YoY number needs to drop back well below 4% to offer any support for the BoE’s stance of looking through high inflation levels. Fortunately for the BoE, gasoline prices have been fairly steady for the last few months and the year-on-year comparisons there could help the index fall back a bit.
The US Retail Sales number was decidedly weak, showing sales expanding half as fast as expected. This is particularly weak given the relatively early Thanksgiving this year (theoretically expanding the length of the US Christmas season.)
Looking aheadThe world is obviously rather underwhelmed with last week’s EU summit, but hasn’t exactly gone out of its way to express much dismay so far across markets. After all, EURUSD is only off a few figures from its recent bounce, the US equity market is still inside the range of the last seven or eight days, and bonds are firm, if not exactly rallying. There is an odd combination out there of plenty of fear, without many appearing especially willing to express it. That being the case, it appears the world is looking for a further catalyst to move the markets. The next obvious potential catalyst is the FOMC meeting up in a while, though it would seem that only a more hawkish than expected performance would trigger any real surprise and market volatility. The other potential catalysts this week are the eternal ad hoc announcements from EU officialdom in following up on last week’s summit and Euro Zone sovereign bond auctions (the Thursday Spanish auctions especially noteworthy.)
Stay tuned and stay careful out there.
Economic Data Highlights UK Nov. RICS House Price Balance out at -17% vs. -25% expected and -24% in Oct. Australia Q3 Dwelling Starts out at -6.8% QoQ vs. -1.0% expected and -4.1% in Q2 Australia Nov. NAB Business Confidence/Conditions out at 2 and 1, respectively , vs. 2 and -1 in Oct., respectively Sweden Nov. CPI out at
Today saw relatively tight range trading after yesterday’s big swings, as the market is either awaiting the outcome of tonight’s FOMC meeting or simply biding its time for any other number of catalysts. US Retail Sales figures were rather downbeat and one of the more notable disappointments after a long string of very strong data.
FOMC PreviewWe’ve got a one-day FOMC meeting set for today, with a new monetary policy statement on the way at 19:15 GMT. Considering that this is a short meeting with no Bernanke press conference and that it will be the last meeting with the three hawkish regional Fed presidents as voters, it’s easy to believe that any major policy hints will await a likely less rowdy bunch of replacements from the regions. Then again, the other of the four voters who is about to become a non-voter, Evans of the Chicago Fed, recently actually dissented on the dovish side, outlining a particularly aggressive monetary forcing in the economy aimed at boosting unemployment through NGDP targeting – creating nominal growth regardless of inflationary consequences through monetary forcing.. It brought to my mind the image of force feeding geese to grow their livers for pate. We’ve yet to see other Fed members expressing enthusiasm for this “nuclear option”, but one wonders what a steep drop in core CPI readings early next year and an unemployment rate bounce back above 9.0% might do for Fed sentiment, should that come to pass. On that note, watch out for this Friday’s CPI release as the month-on-month core numbers have been creeping lower over the last two months, even if the year-on-year levels are near 3-year highs.
Of the four new voters, only one is known to be a hawk, and even if he – Lacker of the Richmond Fed – is a rather outspoken hawk, one wonders what will stop the doves in the New Year. The majority, at least, all seem pliable to the academic absolutism of the Mr. Bernanke and the belief that the Fed can always engineer a rescue with additional helicopter drops of cash/liquidity. But there are a number of forces that could stand in the way of further action from the Fed in the New Year: economic (continued stronger than expected growth and in particular improvement in the labour market or higher than expected inflation), political (stronger signs that the Fed will face resistance from Congress and/or the president. This has boiled up at times, but there’s not enough of a consensus, though it bears watching whether a presidential candidate from the Republican side, or especially from a third party picks up the blame-the-Fed rhetoric. It’s certainly low-hanging fruit for a protest/occupy movement) and financial (Fed unable to keep order across the entire yield curve, creating uncomfortably high yields out at the longer end of the curve. No signs of this at all so far, but worth watching for a bottom in the 30-year bond cycle of ever lower yields.)
Odds and endsThe Germany ZEW survey was a bit better than expected, though still extremely low by historic standards (only late 2008 and 1992 saw similar lows). The current situation component also declined to a 17-month low.
The UK Nov. CPI eased off just a bit, but the YoY number needs to drop back well below 4% to offer any support for the BoE’s stance of looking through high inflation levels. Fortunately for the BoE, gasoline prices have been fairly steady for the last few months and the year-on-year comparisons there could help the index fall back a bit.
The US Retail Sales number was decidedly weak, showing sales expanding half as fast as expected. This is particularly weak given the relatively early Thanksgiving this year (theoretically expanding the length of the US Christmas season.)
Looking aheadThe world is obviously rather underwhelmed with last week’s EU summit, but hasn’t exactly gone out of its way to express much dismay so far across markets. After all, EURUSD is only off a few figures from its recent bounce, the US equity market is still inside the range of the last seven or eight days, and bonds are firm, if not exactly rallying. There is an odd combination out there of plenty of fear, without many appearing especially willing to express it. That being the case, it appears the world is looking for a further catalyst to move the markets. The next obvious potential catalyst is the FOMC meeting up in a while, though it would seem that only a more hawkish than expected performance would trigger any real surprise and market volatility. The other potential catalysts this week are the eternal ad hoc announcements from EU officialdom in following up on last week’s summit and Euro Zone sovereign bond auctions (the Thursday Spanish auctions especially noteworthy.)
Stay tuned and stay careful out there.
Economic Data Highlights UK Nov. RICS House Price Balance out at -17% vs. -25% expected and -24% in Oct. Australia Q3 Dwelling Starts out at -6.8% QoQ vs. -1.0% expected and -4.1% in Q2 Australia Nov. NAB Business Confidence/Conditions out at 2 and 1, respectively , vs. 2 and -1 in Oct., respectively Sweden Nov. CPI out at
Temporarily bullish signals for GBPUSD above 1.5423
More PIA-first, 13 hours ago14 December 2011 This week's Cable selling pressure intensified Tuesday with a third negative day from the last four. This move to 3 week lows also took prices to oversold extremes and although Asian price action has not provided strong signals there are indications of developing profit taking.
In view of this our call is Cautiously, Temporarily Bullish above 1.5423. The immediate objective is 1.5507 with a move beyond that point targeting 1.5531, half of yesterday's net decline, or even 1.5549.
The risk to this call is that the improvement was more temporary and limited than currently assessed and this would be signalled by a move below 1.5423, November’s low. Prices and sentiment should then fall to 1.5385 and towards, but probably not as low as, 1.5272, October’s base.
In view of this our call is Cautiously, Temporarily Bullish above 1.5423. The immediate objective is 1.5507 with a move beyond that point targeting 1.5531, half of yesterday's net decline, or even 1.5549.
The risk to this call is that the improvement was more temporary and limited than currently assessed and this would be signalled by a move below 1.5423, November’s low. Prices and sentiment should then fall to 1.5385 and towards, but probably not as low as, 1.5272, October’s base.
A liquidity ravaged market comes to grips with Christmas
More Ken Veksler, 10 hours ago14 December 2011 I’ve been saying it for a little while now and last night the proof was in the pudding or better still, the price action. After vague news from Iran regarding moving ships to block oil supply and even more staggeringly Fitch placing various Eastern European nations on negative “outlook” we saw the market gap, and I do mean gap seriously as there was a complete lack of bids for what market pundits (read monkey’s) call the “risk” trade. To cut a long story short we saw the USD run much higher against everything, with the standout losers on the European close being EUR, spot Gold, and the AUD. All of which have become very high beta (some already were).Walking in this morning post Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s statement we see a market devoid of enthusiasm for anything resembling normal action. Speaking of Ben, he reaffirmed the Fed’s rate path policy with only a very slight (and rather insignificant) change to the tone of the message, being a little bit more upbeat on growth and recovery prospects for the US. Overall those looking for hints of QE3 were left disappointed and this in large part aided the strength in the USD.
The day ahead has us waiting for prints of UK unemployment, CAD manufacturing sales and the CHF ZEW index. None of the above should be overly market moving and quite frankly not much else is likely to really put a shudder through the market.Levels on the majors in this market, are only that, levels. Directionally speaking its best to either stay out of this market or start using options to really get any value.In the EURUSD looking for a break of the 1.3000 level (despite option barriers sitting there) and the next stop on the road lower is 1.2930 (once stops have been cleared).There is likely to be yet another short squeeze like we saw yesterday, however the magnitude of the move shouldn’t be as great as yesterday's.The AUDUSD will track the EURUSD today as it has for some time now, but again more violently. Looking for 0.9980 to be broken and stops triggered below, taking us into 0.9830 as the next legitimate level of support.
Those long USDCAD from my comments last week should be grinning and probably staying in their longs as we look for 1.0500 in the coming days.Gold for me is the most exciting thing to watch and 1580 is now the real target as the precious yellow metal continues to sell off.Little else to add today and more during the course on Twitter (
The day ahead has us waiting for prints of UK unemployment, CAD manufacturing sales and the CHF ZEW index. None of the above should be overly market moving and quite frankly not much else is likely to really put a shudder through the market.Levels on the majors in this market, are only that, levels. Directionally speaking its best to either stay out of this market or start using options to really get any value.In the EURUSD looking for a break of the 1.3000 level (despite option barriers sitting there) and the next stop on the road lower is 1.2930 (once stops have been cleared).There is likely to be yet another short squeeze like we saw yesterday, however the magnitude of the move shouldn’t be as great as yesterday's.The AUDUSD will track the EURUSD today as it has for some time now, but again more violently. Looking for 0.9980 to be broken and stops triggered below, taking us into 0.9830 as the next legitimate level of support.
Those long USDCAD from my comments last week should be grinning and probably staying in their longs as we look for 1.0500 in the coming days.Gold for me is the most exciting thing to watch and 1580 is now the real target as the precious yellow metal continues to sell off.Little else to add today and more during the course on Twitter (
US Fed keep the status quo!
More Neil Staines, 9 hours ago14 December 2011
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For a brief while the focus of attention of market participants and commentators stepped away from the intense scrutiny of the Eurozone yesterday and crossed the Atlantic for a look at the US economic backdrop and the implications for US monetary policy as narrated by Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke.
Before the announcement the discussions were centred around the recent above-consensus economic data and the implications (as seen by the FOMC – Federal Open Market Committee) for US monetary policy. The reality however was subtle at best.
“Can’t give you more”
The Fed left the target interest rate at zero to 0.25%, suggesting that the economy is “Expanding moderately as global growth slows”. The decision had one dissenter, Evans, who was in favour of further easing. Bernanke was perhaps surprisingly quick to acknowledge the improvement in consumer sentiment and spending (considering that the improvement has been concentrated to the most recent data and yesterday’s retail sales were disappointing) and the broader economic backdrop which he suggested “has continued to advance”. However, despite the marked improvement in the unemployment rate in November the central line is that unemployment remains elevated, business investment is increasing at a slower pace and “Financial strains still pose significant downside risks”.
“Whatever you want”?
The statement clearly highlighted that the Fed “is prepared to employ tools to boost (the) recovery” and stated explicitly that rates will remain “exceptionally low” through “at least mid 2013”. This remains in line with the central projection of markets which have the first rate hike from the Fed ‘priced in’ for Q1 2014, which is as it was before the statement, suggesting that the Fed did nothing to change monetary policy expectations, despite the recent improvements in the backdrop.
“I Didn’t mean it”
The remaining issues of the eurozone compact were brought to the fore yesterday as the worst fears of many became a reality. The Irish Prime Minister was quoted as saying that “Ireland will hold a referendum on the EU treaty if necessary”. Whilst the intimation was subtle (if necessary), the implicit connotation is that the ‘agreement’ of the EU17 becomes moot if countries within the euro have to consult the democratic process. Ultimately this adds to the uncertainty and not “likely to help bond markets” as Sarkozy proclaimed on Monday.
“Euro Summit is not enough to help the region's ratings” – Moody’s
“Down, down deeper and down”
A large focus of the FX market today will be on the significance of the 1.3000 level and the technical dynamic of the ‘barrier option strikes’ that encompass it. Overnight we have seen a couple of attempts at the 1.30 level, set in motion by the FOMC statement. For now at least the bids that lie ahead of the psychological level have contained the down move, however, the size of the bids ahead of 1.3000 will be outnumbered in size by the amount of stop loss orders to sell EURUSD should the 1.3000 level be breached.
“Rockin’ all over the world”
GBP remains relatively well supported in the current environment as the uncertainty surrounding the Eurozone continues to dominate. The USD has clearly taken pole position on the FX grid, but EURGBP still remains a core trade view of mine into the end of the year. Employment data this morning will be important in terms of broader UK specific sentiment, and monetary policy implications for the UK going forward. However, the biggest risk and therefore arguably the biggest driver of monetary policy in the UK remains the events of the Eurozone. This will not change until there is a credible plan for Europe.
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EU treaty cracks emerging while Merkel rejects increased ESM
More Mads Koefoed, 9 hours ago14 December 2011 Non-Independent Investment Research The most awaited December 9 EU summit saw most of the EU agree to a new treaty and Eurozone leaders have huffed and puffed ever since to convince us all that the new treaty was a decisive step in the right direction. The only problem being that EU leaders had forgotten to ask their respective national parliaments, which along with most populations, seem discontent about the whole arrangement. While the UK moved swiftly at the summit itself and vetoed the new treaty four additional countries are rumoured to be considering renegating on their original (pro-) stance. Add to this that Chancellor Merkel rejected an increase to the European Stability Mechanism yesterday and that France has no plans for a budget vote and the picture looks grim.
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Lesson #1 – Introduction
In this lesson I am going to explain a few essential concepts about the nature of the foreign currency market (Forex). I want to remind you that this is not a comprehensive Introduction to the Forex. I am plainly trying to go over the just as important basic principle. As you read through this lesson (and the following classes) I want you to do one thing. Just read. I do not want you to take notes or worry about remembering any specifics. If you do not recognize something, skip it. You have these five classes as a resource, which you can review later.
A lot of people will spend several pages introducing the Forex by giving an historical viewpoint. For a Beginning Forex trader, this is a waste of time. It is intriguing to study about the who, what, when, where and why of the Forex. Historical knowledge about the Forex will not help you to turned a Forex trader!
I will make one important juncture before moving forward. The Forex plays a vital role in the world economy and there will always be a tremendous need for the Forex. International trade increases as technology and connection increases. As protracted as there is international trade, there will be a Forex. The Forex has to exist so a country prefer Japan can sell commodities in the United States and be able to receive Japanese Yen in exchange for US Dollars. The easiest juncture to begin discussing the Forex is by comparing it to the stock market. Most people have a essential concept of how the stock market operates. The stock market is where shares of a company (stock) are exchanged (i.e. bought and sold) by investors. The key principle in stock market trading is to “Get low & sell High.” I don’t mean to sound cliche, but it is true!Lesson #1 – Introduction
In this lesson I am going to explain a few essential concepts about the nature of the foreign currency market (Forex). I want to remind you that this is not a comprehensive Introduction to the Forex. I am plainly trying to go over the just as important basic principle. As you read through this lesson (and the following classes) I want you to do one thing. Just read. I do not want you to take notes or worry about remembering any specifics. If you do not recognize something, skip it. You have these five classes as a resource, which you can review later.
A lot of people will spend several pages introducing the Forex by giving an historical viewpoint. For a Beginning Forex trader, this is a waste of time. It is intriguing to study about the who, what, when, where and why of the Forex. Historical knowledge about the Forex will not help you to turned a Forex trader!
I will make one important juncture before moving forward. The Forex plays a vital role in the world economy and there will always be a tremendous need for the Forex. International trade increases as technology and connection increases. As protracted as there is international trade, there will be a Forex. The Forex has to exist so a country prefer Japan can sell commodities in the United States and be able to receive Japanese Yen in exchange for US Dollars. The easiest juncture to begin discussing the Forex is by comparing it to the stock market. Most people have a essential concept of how the stock market operates. The stock market is where shares of a company (stock) are exchanged (i.e. bought and sold) by investors. The key principle in stock market trading is to “Get low & sell High.” I don’t mean to sound cliche, but it is true!
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martes, 13 de diciembre de 2011
EUR consolidates in Asia after slump, but still looks vulnerable
More Andrew Robinson, 8 hours ago13 December 2011 Non-Independent Investment Research The Asian session saw EUR and AUD trade a tad heavy early on a headline that China would withhold aid until the EU meets certain conditions. But once it was ascertained that the comment came from an academic at Peking University and not a policy-maker the slide halted. Tight ranges ensued thereafter.
Of the data releases, The UK’s RICS house price balance surprised most to the upside with a -17 percent reading after a 3-month pause at -24 percent, and its highest reading in more than one year with surveyors reporting an increase in the number of buyer inquiries. But limited access to housing finance is expected to make any kind of recovery in the housing market a long and protracted one.
There was nothing too exciting from Australia’s NAB business surveys with business confidence unchanged at
Of the data releases, The UK’s RICS house price balance surprised most to the upside with a -17 percent reading after a 3-month pause at -24 percent, and its highest reading in more than one year with surveyors reporting an increase in the number of buyer inquiries. But limited access to housing finance is expected to make any kind of recovery in the housing market a long and protracted one.
There was nothing too exciting from Australia’s NAB business surveys with business confidence unchanged at
EURUSD bearish below 1.3255; rally after selloff seen temporary
More PIA-first, 6 hours ago13 December 2011 EURUSD's move through 1.3212 triggered an outright sell signal for this week and the market moved to the most negative levels traded for 2 months yesterday. It was the most negative daily performance for more than 1 month and also took intraday signals for sentiment to oversold extremes.
The subsequent rally is assessed as minor and temporary.
In view of this our call is Bearish below 1.3255. The immediate objective is 1.3161, the overnight low, with a move below that point targeting 1.3146, October’s bottom, then towards 1.3102.
The risk to this call is that oversold extremes begin to correct earlier and higher than currently assessed. This would be signalled by a move above 1.3255, yesterday's European afternoon open, with subsequent upside targeting 1.3284, half of yesterday's net decline, then 1.3325.
The subsequent rally is assessed as minor and temporary.
In view of this our call is Bearish below 1.3255. The immediate objective is 1.3161, the overnight low, with a move below that point targeting 1.3146, October’s bottom, then towards 1.3102.
The risk to this call is that oversold extremes begin to correct earlier and higher than currently assessed. This would be signalled by a move above 1.3255, yesterday's European afternoon open, with subsequent upside targeting 1.3284, half of yesterday's net decline, then 1.3325.
Last FOMC meeting before the doves arrive?
More Mads Koefoed, 5 hours ago13 December 2011 Non-Independent Investment Research We crank up the activity today with several key monthly indicators, including US Retail Sales, followed by the last FOMC meeting of the year this evening, which will be the last such meeting for several of the hawks in the group.
The calm before the catatonia for currencies?
More Ken Veksler, 4 hours ago13 December 2011 North American equities closing in the red gave the Asian bourses little positive to go on and having traded most of the session with a sideways if not negative tone we walk in Tuesday to more of the same.
News overnight that Moody’s has downgraded another 8 Spanish banks, coupled with the fact that China has put an obvious proviso on the investment vehicle announced last week (they will look carefully at certain criteria being satisfied etc.) led to more sales in the EURUSD. It tested 1.3180 overnight and then took out stops below to trade to an overnight low of 1.3160/65.
Other high beta currencies also took some pain and the overall USD side of the equation continues to look healthy as the DXY continues its consolidation and prepares for further upside.
EURGBP was the star performer in yesterday’s session, and while many pundits in the market here in London believe this price action was vindication of Cameron’s weekend veto, the reality of the situation remains that there were simply significant right hand side GBP flows associated with dividend payments. Technical levels in the EURGBP being breached clearly somewhat coloured this picture.
The day ahead holds little by way of important data, save for the following; UK CPI (which actually has the potential to surprise to the upside), the ZEW survey results for both Germany and Europe (it’s the same thing these days surely) and, of course, tonight we have the FOMC announcement. On the latter, I look for no change to the overall rhetoric and certainly no change to parameters of either rates or stimulus package. There is, however, the chance that the rate path as set out in previous meetings with a mid 2013 horizon will be extended (if not formally, then certainly in spirit) out to the end of 2013.
Levels for the major pairs remain in play as they were form the tail end of last week and the disappointment of a failed summit. The bias as noted above is for more USD purchases, however, and rallies in “risk” pairs serve as opportunities for traders to further fade strength.
In EURUSD the first port of call on a small squeeze this morning is the important 1.3250 pivot level, with stops assuredly sitting just above, while 1.3280/00 should prove to be a far more formidable mountain to ascend.
AUDUSD likewise will have initial difficulty above 1.0130/50, but if the EURUSD decides to go for a headline driven run, then this pair too will have a look at 1.0200/30. Personally, I don’t rate its chances and the downside still remains the favoured directional play.
Cable becomes an enigma play today and best stood aside from. Various M&A and dividend flows seen over the last 5 or so trading days have meant that the pair has decoupled in the very short term from the rest of the market. But worth noting the incredible ability of the pair to hold the 1.5550 support level.
Keep an eye on EURAUD as this pair is in thin markets and, in the coming days especially, has the real potential of cleaning out significant stops sitting below historic lows at 1.3000 before roaring back with a vengeance. Many punters out there have used the quadruple bottom to get long over the last 2 weeks and no doubt many more will attempt to do so again now that we’re down here once more. An inability to exactly put my finger on why has my bones saying to me that we clean out lower before we resume the run higher.
Helmets on remains the overall strategy for forex traders. Just as they say only mad dogs and Englishmen go out in the midday sun - similar might be said about trading this Christmas market.
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News overnight that Moody’s has downgraded another 8 Spanish banks, coupled with the fact that China has put an obvious proviso on the investment vehicle announced last week (they will look carefully at certain criteria being satisfied etc.) led to more sales in the EURUSD. It tested 1.3180 overnight and then took out stops below to trade to an overnight low of 1.3160/65.
Other high beta currencies also took some pain and the overall USD side of the equation continues to look healthy as the DXY continues its consolidation and prepares for further upside.
EURGBP was the star performer in yesterday’s session, and while many pundits in the market here in London believe this price action was vindication of Cameron’s weekend veto, the reality of the situation remains that there were simply significant right hand side GBP flows associated with dividend payments. Technical levels in the EURGBP being breached clearly somewhat coloured this picture.
The day ahead holds little by way of important data, save for the following; UK CPI (which actually has the potential to surprise to the upside), the ZEW survey results for both Germany and Europe (it’s the same thing these days surely) and, of course, tonight we have the FOMC announcement. On the latter, I look for no change to the overall rhetoric and certainly no change to parameters of either rates or stimulus package. There is, however, the chance that the rate path as set out in previous meetings with a mid 2013 horizon will be extended (if not formally, then certainly in spirit) out to the end of 2013.
Levels for the major pairs remain in play as they were form the tail end of last week and the disappointment of a failed summit. The bias as noted above is for more USD purchases, however, and rallies in “risk” pairs serve as opportunities for traders to further fade strength.
In EURUSD the first port of call on a small squeeze this morning is the important 1.3250 pivot level, with stops assuredly sitting just above, while 1.3280/00 should prove to be a far more formidable mountain to ascend.
AUDUSD likewise will have initial difficulty above 1.0130/50, but if the EURUSD decides to go for a headline driven run, then this pair too will have a look at 1.0200/30. Personally, I don’t rate its chances and the downside still remains the favoured directional play.
Cable becomes an enigma play today and best stood aside from. Various M&A and dividend flows seen over the last 5 or so trading days have meant that the pair has decoupled in the very short term from the rest of the market. But worth noting the incredible ability of the pair to hold the 1.5550 support level.
Keep an eye on EURAUD as this pair is in thin markets and, in the coming days especially, has the real potential of cleaning out significant stops sitting below historic lows at 1.3000 before roaring back with a vengeance. Many punters out there have used the quadruple bottom to get long over the last 2 weeks and no doubt many more will attempt to do so again now that we’re down here once more. An inability to exactly put my finger on why has my bones saying to me that we clean out lower before we resume the run higher.
Helmets on remains the overall strategy for forex traders. Just as they say only mad dogs and Englishmen go out in the midday sun - similar might be said about trading this Christmas market.
Tags: EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, EURGBP, equities, Consumer Price Index 169 Views 0 Like! 0 Comments 0 Follow In order to like something, you need to be a member.
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US, UK, EU: Know your enemy?
More Neil Staines, 2 hours ago13 December 2011
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“Know your enemy” – Rage Against The Machine
“Now I got no patience”
If there is one word that sums up the sentiment of yesterday’s markets it is disappointment. The apathy that consumed trading throughout the day was akin to a disappointing acceptance from the ‘bulls’ that the reality of the EU summit announcements is that we are still a lot further away from a solution to the troubles than it was hoped we would be at this point. The historic tendency for equity markets (and the EUR) to rally in the final month of the year has added to the frustration as stocks, EUR and broad risk assets slumped on the realisation that this year is definitely one to rely on historic correlations, or the norm!
“Still in a room without a view”
The reality of the situation in the eurozone is that there “is no silver bullet”, there is no immediate panacea. The ECB have given what Christian Noyer described yesterday as a “bazooka” in terms of flooding the banking sector with long term liquidity and reducing collateral constraints, however, the uncertainty of the ultimate outcome of the eurozone continues to propagate further uncertainty – One of the reasons that the ECB saw the need to inject further liquidity into the banking sector is that banks are placing money on deposit at the ‘safety’ of the ECB’s facility to the tune of over EUR300 billion a day at the moment, this is a perfect example of the uncertainty of the ‘safety’ of interbank counterparts leading to a reduction in liquidity for the system as a whole. Full monetization of eurozone debt by the ECB is potentially the only real short term action that could cause an about turn in the markets (perhaps along with a full guarantee of eurozone debt from Germany) however legally and politically this is proving a step to far at the current juncture.
“All of which are American dreams”
I discussed briefly yesterday the recent, significant outperformance of the US macro economic backdrop over last few weeks, which has delivered consumer, sentiment and manufacturing data that are likely to see a Q4 GDP print significantly above expectations as recently as a couple of weeks ago. Today we may well get further confirmation of this as small business optimism, retail sales, inventories and a jobs measure pave the way for this evenings US monetary policy meeting (FOMC).
“Mind of a revolutionary”?
As usual on the day of the FOMC, Fed Chairman Bernanke will be the core focus of the proceedings in the build up to the ‘forensic lexicography’ of the statement. Today’s statement however will perhaps be looked at with a subtly but significantly different bias.
December began with a bang in the US as adjustments to the size of the US labour force gave rise to a sharp fall in the Unemployment Rate. Whilst the level of unemployment is still unpalatable for Congress and the Fed, if we add the recent economic momentum to the improved pace of reduction of the unemployment rate (providing that it can be maintained – or at least validated in next months data) then the prospects for Fed policy start to become more two-way.
“compromise, conformity,… “
I am not suggesting that the Fed start to tighten policy any time soon, but the acknowledgement of the improved (even subtly improving) macro economic backdrop, however tentative, may start to put a slightly different perspective on the analysis of Fed policy. For me this is the transition between USD positive news being negative for the USD because the higher ‘beta’ currencies (or those currencies, or assets with a higher correlation to ‘risk’) take greater impetus from the ‘risk positive’ stimuli than the USD, to a point where good US data will ultimately begin to be positive for the USD.
At the current juncture the impact of this is likely to be subtle but as we move into 2012, the implications for currencies such as JPY (particularly if there is a ‘plan’ in the eurozone) are very significant. For today the focus may be on the ‘enemies’ of individual nations and their response to the threats they pose, however the dislocation and disruption of the eurozone crisis and the turbulence of the crises before that have provided a platform for significant opportunity going forward. On of the UK’s biggest enemies of late has been that of Inflation. This mornings data show that the pressure is starting to come down, but with prices still rising at an annual rate of 4.8% it may be a while before inflation falls to a level that is more supportive of consumption and demand growth.
Tags: EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURGBP, macro, Gross Domestic Product, Monthly Retail Sales, Unemployment Rate 117 Views 0 Like! 0 Comments 0 Follow In order to like something, you need to be a member.Click here to join. It's free!
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Thirty Days of FOREX Trading: Trades, Tactics, and Techniques (Wiley Trading)
Whether you’re a full-time trader looking to make a living or a part-time trader looking to make some extra money, the foreign exchange (forex) market has what you desire–the potential to make sizeable profits and 24/7 accessibility.
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Getting Started in Forex Trading Strategies
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ALLEGRA / FOREX TRADING SYSTEM (Metatrader Template)
You Only Need To Wait Entry Signals
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FIBOSCREEN FOREX TRADING SYSTEM(Metatrader Template)
Trendlines
What Does Fibonacci Fan Mean?
A charting technique consisting of three diagonal lines that use Fibonacci ratios to help identify key levels of support and resistance.
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Reasons Forex Traders Lose Money and How To Rectify The Problem
There are several leading reasons why Forex traders continuously lose money. Remember, knowing these reasons is vital to your success because most traders lose money in the Forex. You want to be able to avoid the usual way of doing things because that usual way does not work. That leads us to the first reason why most people lose money in Forex trading. It’s because they do indeed fail to be contrarians. Contrarians are the successful traders and investors in any market. Only by doing what most people are not doing can you make big money with trading. Most people are “sheeple” who are using proven-failure methods of trading simply because…yes, “everyone else is doing it”.There are several leading reasons why Forex traders continuously lose money. Remember, knowing these reasons is vital to your success because most traders lose money in the Forex. You want to be able to avoid the usual way of doing things because that usual way does not work. That leads us to the first reason why most people lose money in Forex trading. It’s because they do indeed fail to be contrarians. Contrarians are the successful traders and investors in any market. Only by doing what most people are not doing can you make big money with trading. Most people are “sheeple” who are using proven-failure methods of trading simply because…yes, “everyone else is doing it”.
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lunes, 12 de diciembre de 2011
Bullish bets on agriculture cut to lowest level in two years
More Ole Hansen, 9 hours ago12 December 2011 Non-Independent Investment Research Hedge funds and large investors increased their long exposure to commodities for the first time in four weeks on the back of a weaker dollar and cautious optimism ahead of last week's EU summit. Some 33k contracts of futures and options were added bringing the total exposure to 786k contracts which is still close to the lowest levels since July 2009.
Much of the reduction seen over the last months has been due to a dramatic reduction among agricultural commodities. On the back of expanding global supplies hedge funds have cut bullish bets to the lowest level in more than two years. Since the February 2011 peak of more than 1.3 million contracts the overall exposure now stands at only 327,000 with speculators now being outright short of Soybean meal and oil, wheat, rice and cocoa. The USDA report last Friday added further pressure on prices as the combined global inventories of corn, soybeans and wheat rose more than expected.
Long exposure to the meat sector, which is viewed as being more defensive during recessions, is higher than soft and grains sectors combined showing the scale of the reductions seen these past few months.
The energy sector saw a 12 percent increase in net long positions primarily due to a 8k increase in crude longs and a 17k reduction in natural gas shorts. The build in crude longs happened just ahead of the ECB meeting with traders being wrong footed by the disappointed outcome and a subsequent five dollar sell-off followed.
The metal sector saw a 5 percent increase in bullish bets with gold longs rising by 5 percent while copper shorts were scaled back to the lowest level in three weeks. Silver longs were added but overall the exposure remains struck close to a 2.5 year low.
Much of the reduction seen over the last months has been due to a dramatic reduction among agricultural commodities. On the back of expanding global supplies hedge funds have cut bullish bets to the lowest level in more than two years. Since the February 2011 peak of more than 1.3 million contracts the overall exposure now stands at only 327,000 with speculators now being outright short of Soybean meal and oil, wheat, rice and cocoa. The USDA report last Friday added further pressure on prices as the combined global inventories of corn, soybeans and wheat rose more than expected.
Long exposure to the meat sector, which is viewed as being more defensive during recessions, is higher than soft and grains sectors combined showing the scale of the reductions seen these past few months.
The energy sector saw a 12 percent increase in net long positions primarily due to a 8k increase in crude longs and a 17k reduction in natural gas shorts. The build in crude longs happened just ahead of the ECB meeting with traders being wrong footed by the disappointed outcome and a subsequent five dollar sell-off followed.
The metal sector saw a 5 percent increase in bullish bets with gold longs rising by 5 percent while copper shorts were scaled back to the lowest level in three weeks. Silver longs were added but overall the exposure remains struck close to a 2.5 year low.
EU summit cries wolf once again
More Ken Veksler, 10 hours ago12 December 2011 And welcome to a market in which the EU summit cried wolf just one more time. Many in the market had priced in the mother of all solutions to come from yet another summit held at the tail end of last week, but alas, most were sorely disappointed as yet again nothing concrete (at least in my eyes) was determined at the conclusion of the meeting of the mutual admiration society.
Risk as many have now come to know it (USD complex) is now looking to be firmly off the cards pending the next headline and in reality with where we are on the calendar, there is likely to be little to save those bulls at the moment. Traders walking in this morning are faced with yet another hard question, do I bother getting involved now, or simply pull up stumps and watch the mess unfold in the remaining trading days of the year. The data calendar today is light to say the least and most will be looking for follow up rhetoric and jawboning from various Euro officials for the next 30 point move in any major pair.
As far as levels are concerned, this week like the last few should see some (sceptically written) USD sales to start the week, however these will be rather short-lived in the face of diminishing belief in a positive global outcome. Thus for choice most will be looking at buying USD on the whole and the majors look a little like the following;
EURUSD: This pair is most definitely toppish around the 1.3450 area (should we even see it there) and rally faders will have their offers firmly stacked into that area. Better bids come in at the 1.3180 level with 1.3250 pivot and stops below the main target for sellers this morning.
AUDUSD: I like the little battler lower and so does the market by the look of it. The 1.0285 area (again like above in the EURUSD) is where offers are lined up and 1.0050 for the time being becomes the psychological pivot and most immediate support of any real note. Sellers are everywhere at the moment.
USDCAD: Now this seems far away at the moment but good bids into the week should reside around the 1.0120 area and further down into 1.0030, with some stops sitting into 0.9930. The topside however is the key in this scenario and if we can decisively break and close above the 1.0280 area then the next obvious target is 1.0480.
GBPUSD: Trading much like the EURUSD however far uglier, especially in light of Cameron’s most recent treaty veto. Cautious sellers are around the 1.5710/30 area with stops above 1.5815, looking for an initial test and possible break of the 1.5550 support area.
EURAUD: Understandably trades with a purchasing bias, with bids in and around the 1.3040 and 1.2990 areas, looking for a retrace into 1.3300 and possibly higher.
That’s about it for today folks, as it becomes increasingly harder to write much of note this time of year. Tags: EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, USDCAD 133 Views 0 Like! 0 Comments 0 Follow In order to like something, you need to be a member.
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Risk as many have now come to know it (USD complex) is now looking to be firmly off the cards pending the next headline and in reality with where we are on the calendar, there is likely to be little to save those bulls at the moment. Traders walking in this morning are faced with yet another hard question, do I bother getting involved now, or simply pull up stumps and watch the mess unfold in the remaining trading days of the year. The data calendar today is light to say the least and most will be looking for follow up rhetoric and jawboning from various Euro officials for the next 30 point move in any major pair.
As far as levels are concerned, this week like the last few should see some (sceptically written) USD sales to start the week, however these will be rather short-lived in the face of diminishing belief in a positive global outcome. Thus for choice most will be looking at buying USD on the whole and the majors look a little like the following;
EURUSD: This pair is most definitely toppish around the 1.3450 area (should we even see it there) and rally faders will have their offers firmly stacked into that area. Better bids come in at the 1.3180 level with 1.3250 pivot and stops below the main target for sellers this morning.
AUDUSD: I like the little battler lower and so does the market by the look of it. The 1.0285 area (again like above in the EURUSD) is where offers are lined up and 1.0050 for the time being becomes the psychological pivot and most immediate support of any real note. Sellers are everywhere at the moment.
USDCAD: Now this seems far away at the moment but good bids into the week should reside around the 1.0120 area and further down into 1.0030, with some stops sitting into 0.9930. The topside however is the key in this scenario and if we can decisively break and close above the 1.0280 area then the next obvious target is 1.0480.
GBPUSD: Trading much like the EURUSD however far uglier, especially in light of Cameron’s most recent treaty veto. Cautious sellers are around the 1.5710/30 area with stops above 1.5815, looking for an initial test and possible break of the 1.5550 support area.
EURAUD: Understandably trades with a purchasing bias, with bids in and around the 1.3040 and 1.2990 areas, looking for a retrace into 1.3300 and possibly higher.
That’s about it for today folks, as it becomes increasingly harder to write much of note this time of year. Tags: EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, USDCAD 133 Views 0 Like! 0 Comments 0 Follow In order to like something, you need to be a member.
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All roads lead down from the EU summit?
More Neil Staines, 10 hours ago12 December 2011
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Monetary union, fiscal union, political union… “that which we call a rose by any other name would smell as…. … “ - William Shakespeare
While the weekend press in the UK was full of the potential implications and ramifications of the UK after its veto of the new EU treaty on Friday, the focus of market attention this week is likely to come back towards a monetary union that promised fiscal union and despite the fact that there was the promise of a further EUR200 billion funding via the International Monetary Fund, the lack of detail as to where this money is going to come from and the distinct lack of any specific areas of progress, the issues surrounding the Eurozone today look remarkably similar to that of last week, or the week before!
“All that glistens is not gold”
After a risk rally into the EU summit at the end of last week, the markets have not really given anything back. Though there is still the possibility that the EU builds on the (still fragile) basis of a ‘fiscal compact’, the promise that the fiscal imprudence and divergent competitiveness will not happen again within the union are not the same as forming a plan for repairing confidence in the finances and structure of the Eurozone itself. While this week is likely to highlight a growing illiquidity there confidence may begin to wane as further detail (or lack of) emerge this week.
“Parting is such sweet sorrow”
Political infighting in the UK’s coalition government will likely continue to be propagated by the popular press however, while Deputy PM and his Liberal Democratic party have seemingly changed tack and began to decry the Prime Ministe'rs decision to veto the treaty change two opinion polls over the weekend suggesting that the populace is resoundingly in favour of David Cameron's actions mean that it is unlikely that Messrs Clegg and Cable ‘stamp their feet’ for too long.
“I say there is no darkness but ignorance”
Interestingly the UK trade data on Friday highlighted a strong boost to the external position as it narrowed by a record amount in October as exports rose 9.0 percent, lead by a record level of exports to non-EU countries (GBP12.6 billion) taking the total deficit (goods and services) to just GBP1.552 billion (from GBP4.298 billion in September). I am increasingly confident that the UK’s glass is half full
“Boldness be my friend”
On the other side of the Atlantic, the improvement in the macroeconomic backdrop in the US seems to have been largely overlooked as the latest chapter of the Eurozone debacle played out. The reality of the situation however is that the US is now likely to post a significantly higher GDP print for Q4 than would have been believed as recently as two weeks ago. This is an interesting dynamic as we move into the last couple of weeks of the year. There is a raft of US data this week and further confirmation of an improving backdrop is likely to see further gains for the USD – particularly if Congress makes progress on extending the payroll tax cut that expires at the end of the year.
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